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Kaiserslautern 1–0 Heidenheim

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Thomsen, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win39%2.52
Kaiserslautern win34%2.86
Draw28%3.53

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

49'🟨Christoph Moritz · Kaiserslautern
62'🟨Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim
68'⚽Sebastian Andersson · Kaiserslautern
85'🟨Mads Albaek · Kaiserslautern
89'🟨Marius Müller · Kaiserslautern
90'🟨Tim Skarke · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots21
3On target7
2Corners2
18Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternHeidenheim
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.650.55
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFritz-Walter-Stadion
1.40
coach days94.003900.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.801.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.792.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.09
dominance (last 5)0.400.44
elo1434.861481.25
elo momentum (last 5)-7.2916.73
eye test v10.43-0.63
eye trend v1-0.05-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)65.7054.40
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.700.67
league points32.0042.00
league rank19.0014.00
matches since blank1.0010.00
matches since clean sheet20.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0066.40
possession avg (last 5)45.8040.40
rest days9.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.22
season ppg0.941.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.80-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6011.40
skill v1-0.33-1.69
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.40
squad age26.4226.78
state index-0.50-0.10
sterile dominance v1-0.80-1.32
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.340.27
threat rate (last 5)0.310.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40