← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 35% | 2.81 |
| Dresden win | 34% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.13 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 19' | 🟨 | Erich Berko · Dresden |
| 45' | 🟨 | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 84' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 85' | 🟨 | Peniel Mlapa · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 339.00 | 1040.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1407.46 | 1436.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.09 | -8.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 39.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 25.20 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |