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1. FC Union Berlin 3–1 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Union Berlin win42%2.30
Bochum win30%3.23
Draw28%3.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Patrick Fabian · Bochum
35'🟨Dennis Daube · 1. FC Union Berlin
45'⚽Kenny Prince Redondo · 1. FC Union Berlin
47'⚽ (og)Danilo Soares · 1. FC Union Berlin
51'🟨Christopher Trimmel · 1. FC Union Berlin
53'🟨Kenny Prince Redondo · 1. FC Union Berlin
61'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
80'🟨Manuel Riemann · Bochum
86'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
90'⚽Steven Skrzybski · 1. FC Union Berlin

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
25Shots10
7On target1
8Corners9
15Fouls8
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC Union BerlinBochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.640.59
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAn der Alten Försterei
coach days153.0094.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.802.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.452.46
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.08
dominance (last 5)0.610.54
elo1499.061509.97
elo momentum (last 5)-12.1242.71
eye test v1-0.450.38
eye trend v10.13-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)59.9064.40
form points (last 5)6.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.670.71
league points43.0048.00
league rank12.005.00
matches since blank3.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6082.40
possession avg (last 5)57.4058.00
rest days8.009.00
scorer concentration0.250.42
season ppg1.261.41
shot diff avg (last 5)4.402.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.2015.00
skill v10.101.16
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.80
squad age26.6628.58
state index-0.120.63
sterile dominance v10.360.66
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.00