← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 40% | 2.46 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 35% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 75' | ⚽ | Benito Raman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 77' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel |
| 82' | 🟨 | Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 13 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 796.00 | 643.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1534.81 | 1573.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.27 | 13.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.68 |
| league points | 65.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 27.79 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |