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FC St. Pauli 1910 3–0 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win47%2.08
Draw28%3.42
Greuther Furth win25%3.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Dimitrios Diamantakos · FC St. Pauli 1910
39'⚽Johannes Flum · FC St. Pauli 1910
61'⚽Richard Neudecker · FC St. Pauli 1910
80'🟨Jan-Philipp Kalla · FC St. Pauli 1910
88'🟨Yi-Young Park · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Roberto Hilbert · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots15
5On target3
4Corners5
15Fouls11
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Greuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.610.50
cards avg (last 5)3.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
1.60
coach days148.00239.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.802.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.602.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.08
dominance (last 5)0.430.48
elo1459.571462.14
elo momentum (last 5)-36.99-11.54
eye test v1-0.31-0.67
eye trend v1-0.14-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)61.8067.30
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.730.78
league points38.0038.00
league rank16.0017.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win7.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4068.40
possession avg (last 5)48.4046.40
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.140.19
season ppg1.191.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2013.60
skill v1-0.43-1.08
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age26.7527.31
state index-0.89-0.37
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.260.34
threat rate (last 3)0.200.30
threat rate (last 5)0.210.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00