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Bochum 2–1 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win55%1.76
Draw26%3.68
Erzgebirge AUE win18%5.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Robbie Kruse · Bochum
16'⚽Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE
27'🟨Malcolm Cacutalua · Erzgebirge AUE
50'🟨Kevin Stöger · Bochum
65'🟥Dennis Kempe · Erzgebirge AUE
75'🟨Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE
77'⚽Robbie Kruse · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots8
4On target4
2Corners1
14Fouls18
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumErzgebirge AUE
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.600.61
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days85.00330.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.15
corner diff avg (last 5)1.801.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.463.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.45
elo1504.051413.38
elo momentum (last 5)49.04-18.50
eye test v10.510.02
eye trend v1-0.14-0.59
first sub minute (last 10)64.4056.80
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.690.71
league points45.0039.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.006.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6079.00
possession avg (last 5)58.4047.60
rest days7.005.00
scorer concentration0.450.28
season ppg1.361.18
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.2011.60
skill v11.000.10
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.20
squad age27.9527.49
state index0.57-0.70
sterile dominance v10.58-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20