← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Mon, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 50% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
| Nurnberg win | 24% | 3.96 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Georg Margreitter · Nurnberg |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Kingsley Schindler · Holstein Kiel |
| 25' | ⚽ | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Lukas Mühl · Nurnberg |
| 64' | 🟨 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Aaron Seydel · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 630.00 | 418.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 4.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1571.38 | 1555.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.86 | -8.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.00 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 55.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.77 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.97 | 25.95 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |