← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 38% | 2.55 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 35% | 2.77 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.62 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Mads Albaek · Kaiserslautern |
| 32' | 🟨 | Erich Berko · Dresden |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
| 40' | 🟨 | Phillipp Mwene · Kaiserslautern |
| 53' | 🟨 | Leon Guwara · Kaiserslautern |
| 79' | ⚽ | Erich Berko · Dresden |
| 84' | 🟨 | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
| 84' | 🟥 | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 21 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Fritz-Walter-Stadion |
| coach days | 80.00 | 1026.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1453.92 | 1433.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.06 | -11.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 32.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 25.24 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |