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Regensburg 3–1 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg win45%2.17
FC St. Pauli 1910 win29%3.38
Draw27%3.65

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Marco Grüttner · Regensburg
16'🟨Marvin Knoll · Regensburg
20'⚽Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg
26'🟨Markus Palionis · Regensburg
37'🟨Richard Neudecker · FC St. Pauli 1910
42'🟨Marc Lais · Regensburg
45'🟨Jan-Philipp Kalla · FC St. Pauli 1910
45'🟥Sami Allagui · FC St. Pauli 1910
48'⚽Joshua Mees · Regensburg
51'🟨Dimitrios Diamantakos · FC St. Pauli 1910
53'⚽Johannes Flum · FC St. Pauli 1910
57'🟨Joshua Mees · Regensburg
75'🟥Cenk Şahin · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
14Shots8
6On target5
6Corners3
12Fouls9
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.560.59
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueContinental Arena
2.60
coach days294.00141.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.44
elo1454.931472.76
elo momentum (last 5)9.25-24.62
eye test v10.05-0.12
eye trend v1-0.19-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)55.5062.50
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.620.73
league points47.0038.00
league rank4.0014.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.004.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)62.0074.20
possession avg (last 5)45.6053.00
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.260.14
season ppg1.521.23
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.6011.00
skill v1-1.79-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.20
squad age27.0026.90
state index0.03-0.68
sterile dominance v1-1.240.26
threat rate (last 10)0.320.27
threat rate (last 3)0.330.19
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80