← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dietz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 38% | 2.53 |
| Heidenheim win | 34% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.55 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim |
| 51' | ⚽ | Takashi Usami · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kolja Pusch · Heidenheim |
| 79' | ⚽ | Kevin Kraus · Heidenheim |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kevin Lankford · Heidenheim |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximilian Thiel · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 3879.00 | 775.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 3.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1448.84 | 1525.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.88 | 8.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| league points | 35.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.87 | 27.10 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |