← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 39% | 2.46 |
| Dresden win | 33% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.57 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Niklas Hauptmann · Dresden |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Kingsley Schindler · Holstein Kiel |
| 33' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 57' | 🟨 | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 65' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marcel Franke · Dresden |
| 86' | ⚽ | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| coach days | 1018.00 | 621.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1450.17 | 1555.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.72 | 14.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.59 | 26.82 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |