← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christof Gunsch, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 37% | 2.61 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 33% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 310.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1450.55 | 1493.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.43 | -2.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 26.73 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |