← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johann Pfeifer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 52% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 |
| Heidenheim win | 21% | 4.58 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Robert Strauss · Heidenheim |
| 25' | 🟨 | Maximilian Thiel · Heidenheim |
| 28' | ⚽ | John Verhoek · Heidenheim |
| 30' | ⚽ | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
| 31' | ⚽ | Eduard Löwen · Nurnberg |
| 38' | ⚽ | Marvin Stefaniak · Nurnberg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim |
| 52' | ⚽ | Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tobias Werner · Nurnberg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Kevin Möhwald · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 402.00 | 3871.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.20 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1548.12 | 1454.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.57 | -26.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 53.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.72 | 27.29 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |