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FC St. Pauli 1910 1–1 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexander Sather, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win42%2.33
Draw31%3.12
SV Sandhausen win27%3.57

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Sami Allagui · FC St. Pauli 1910
54'⚽Rúrik Gíslason · SV Sandhausen
66'🟨Markus Karl · SV Sandhausen
68'🟨Yi-Young Park · FC St. Pauli 1910
77'🟨Jeremy Dudziak · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Denis Linsmayer · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots19
3On target6
2Corners6
13Fouls19
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910SV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.680.58
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
2.00
coach days121.00639.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.082.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.18
dominance (last 5)0.410.57
elo1496.021462.32
elo momentum (last 5)13.76-22.70
eye test v1-0.37-0.22
eye trend v1-0.460.03
first sub minute (last 10)60.5049.60
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.780.64
league points37.0036.00
league rank9.0013.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.6067.80
possession avg (last 5)46.2050.80
rest days14.9614.96
scorer concentration0.150.21
season ppg1.321.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.203.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.2012.20
skill v1-1.28-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.20
squad age27.0626.96
state index0.00-0.52
sterile dominance v1-0.73-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.320.23
threat rate (last 3)0.280.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80