← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kempter, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 52% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.62 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 21% | 4.53 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 27' | ⚽ | Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 35' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alexander Nandzik · Regensburg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ridge Munsy · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 50' | ⚽ | Marvin Knoll · Regensburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 57' | ⚽ | Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 73' | 🟨 | Martin Männel · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 77' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Regensburg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| coach days | 274.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1458.62 | 1431.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.53 | 31.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 43.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.87 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 27.81 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |