← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 38% | 2.57 |
| Nurnberg win | 33% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.37 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Nurnberg |
| 26' | 🟨 | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 39' | 🟨 | Marvin Stefaniak · Nurnberg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Nurnberg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Rico Benatelli · Dresden |
| 53' | ⚽ | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kevin Möhwald · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| coach days | 1004.00 | 395.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1445.04 | 1549.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.42 | -31.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 38.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.00 | 25.70 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |