← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 52% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 |
| Dresden win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Thomas Pledl · Ingolstadt |
| 28' | ⚽ | Tobias Schröck · Ingolstadt |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 79' | ⚽ | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | ⚽ | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 229.00 | 991.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1520.99 | 1454.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.59 | 2.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 35.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 23.68 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |