← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christof Gunsch, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 66% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.79 |
| Heidenheim win | 14% | 7.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Kevin Kraus · Heidenheim |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Kingsley Schindler · Holstein Kiel |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim |
| 39' | ⚽ | David Kinsombi · Holstein Kiel |
| 42' | 🟨 | Dominic Peitz · Holstein Kiel |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim |
| 67' | 🟨 | John Verhoek · Heidenheim |
| 73' | 🟨 | Patrick Herrmann · Holstein Kiel |
| 82' | ⚽ | John Verhoek · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 592.00 | 3849.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1553.35 | 1470.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.90 | -17.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.80 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 47.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.04 | 28.22 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |