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Fortuna Dusseldorf 4–2 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fortuna Dusseldorf win46%2.14
Bielefeld win28%3.50
Draw27%3.67

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Julian Börner · Bielefeld
31'⚽Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf
49'🟨Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf
50'⚽Tom Schütz · Bielefeld
57'⚽Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf
68'⚽Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf
71'⚽Benito Raman · Fortuna Dusseldorf
90'🟨Niko Giesselmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots12
9On target3
12Corners5
11Fouls15
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFortuna DusseldorfBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)1.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerkur Spielarena
2.60
coach days745.00623.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.731.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.400.55
elo1538.641489.58
elo momentum (last 5)15.2514.21
eye test v10.100.24
eye trend v10.21-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)60.8064.20
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.30
keeper form v10.700.69
league points56.0039.00
league rank1.005.00
matches since blank10.008.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4074.00
possession avg (last 5)54.0050.00
rest days5.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg2.001.39
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.802.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0014.00
skill v1-0.15-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.80
squad age28.1226.33
state index0.150.11
sterile dominance v10.17-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.240.30
threat rate (last 3)0.280.31
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20