← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 57% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.85 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 17% | 5.56 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Dominik Wydra · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mario Kvesić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 70' | 🟨 | Felix Kroos · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 97.00 | 283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1529.24 | 1417.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.76 | 13.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 35.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |