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Bielefeld 1–0 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win38%2.59
Nurnberg win34%2.83
Draw28%3.45

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

50'🟨Eduard Löwen · Nurnberg
79'🟨Ewerton · Nurnberg
81'🟨Julian Börner · Bielefeld
90'🟨Brian Behrendt · Bielefeld
90'⚽Konstantin Kerschbaumer · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots10
3On target3
7Corners1
14Fouls19
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.590.62
cards avg (last 5)2.201.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchüco-Arena
coach days616.00373.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.491.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.550.49
elo1478.861564.18
elo momentum (last 5)6.70-6.83
eye test v10.23-0.13
eye trend v1-0.20-0.58
first sub minute (last 10)64.1058.20
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.43
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.680.77
league points36.0051.00
league rank8.001.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8080.00
possession avg (last 5)48.6054.20
rest days5.006.00
scorer concentration0.240.27
season ppg1.331.89
shot diff avg (last 5)2.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6011.20
skill v1-0.580.65
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.505.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
squad age26.4724.69
state index-0.020.10
sterile dominance v1-0.760.59
threat rate (last 10)0.310.25
threat rate (last 3)0.300.23
threat rate (last 5)0.300.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80