← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Waschitzki, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 50% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.61 |
| Heidenheim win | 23% | 4.19 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 7' | ⚽ | Maximilian Thiel · Heidenheim |
| 11' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mathias Wittek · Heidenheim |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Paul Seguin · Heidenheim |
| 77' | 🟨 | Denis Thomalla · Heidenheim |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim |
| 83' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| coach days | 982.00 | 3842.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1445.55 | 1479.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.52 | 4.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.10 | 27.60 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |