⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Kaiserslautern 4–3 1. FC Union Berlin

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Waschitzki, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Union Berlin win41%2.40
Kaiserslautern win32%3.05
Draw27%3.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Brandon Borrello · Kaiserslautern
36'⚽ (og)Sebastian Andersson · 1. FC Union Berlin
41'⚽Sebastian Andersson · Kaiserslautern
51'⚽Steven Skrzybski · 1. FC Union Berlin
59'🟨Leon Guwara · Kaiserslautern
66'⚽ (pen)Christoph Moritz · Kaiserslautern
81'⚽Steven Skrzybski · 1. FC Union Berlin
84'🟨Phillipp Mwene · Kaiserslautern
86'⚽Phillipp Mwene · Kaiserslautern
90'🟨Benjamin Kessel · Kaiserslautern

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots13
7On target6
2Corners6
10Fouls19
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslautern1. FC Union Berlin
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.740.61
cards avg (last 5)1.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFritz-Walter-Stadion
2.00
coach days29.0088.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.332.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.390.56
elo1413.081541.18
elo momentum (last 5)29.15-0.24
eye test v1-0.610.04
eye trend v10.020.05
first sub minute (last 10)58.1067.40
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.700.67
league points21.0035.00
league rank19.008.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet11.0011.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2075.80
possession avg (last 5)49.0059.80
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.350.28
season ppg0.841.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.403.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0014.00
skill v1-0.100.60
sot against avg (last 5)6.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.604.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.40
squad age25.4326.77
state index-0.230.01
sterile dominance v10.010.59
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40