← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 40% | 2.42 |
| Regensburg win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Marc Lais · Regensburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sebastian Nachreiner · Regensburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marvin Knoll · Regensburg |
| 64' | ⚽ | Erich Berko · Dresden |
| 82' | 🟨 | Philip Heise · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| coach days | 963.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.93 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1442.62 | 1450.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.47 | 48.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 65.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 23.97 | 26.93 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |