← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Mon, Feb 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 39% | 2.52 |
| Nurnberg win | 33% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.38 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Tobias Werner · Nurnberg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bernd Nehrig · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Ewerton · Nurnberg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 73.00 | 348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1481.41 | 1571.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.75 | 27.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| league points | 28.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.47 | 24.71 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |