← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thorben Siewer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 37% | 2.66 |
| Greuther Furth win | 34% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Julian Green · Greuther Furth |
| 39' | 🟨 | Aias Aosman · Dresden |
| 39' | ⚽ | Lukas Gugganig · Greuther Furth |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sascha Horvath · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer |
| coach days | 163.00 | 956.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1419.03 | 1451.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.51 | -36.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.97 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.69 | 24.01 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |