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Kaiserslautern 3–1 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win49%1.98
Draw27%3.63
Kaiserslautern win24%3.99

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Brandon Borrello · Kaiserslautern
5'🟨Patrick Herrmann · Holstein Kiel
24'🟨David Kinsombi · Holstein Kiel
32'⚽David Kinsombi · Holstein Kiel
45'⚽ (pen)Christoph Moritz · Kaiserslautern
51'⚽Osayamen Osawe · Kaiserslautern
81'🟨Christoph Moritz · Kaiserslautern
84'🟨Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
14Shots17
6On target4
3Corners3
12Fouls18
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.700.63
cards avg (last 5)3.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFritz-Walter-Stadion
4.00
coach days8.00557.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.403.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.323.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.300.47
elo1399.451557.58
elo momentum (last 5)2.74-26.43
eye test v1-1.14-0.64
eye trend v1-0.18-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)51.8073.80
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.590.80
league points15.0039.00
league rank19.003.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.001.00
matches since win0.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2071.80
possession avg (last 5)44.6053.20
rest days5.006.00
scorer concentration0.500.29
season ppg0.711.77
shot diff avg (last 5)-10.60-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.6010.60
skill v1-0.92-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)6.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.604.40
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.20
squad age25.3627.04
state index-0.62-0.54
sterile dominance v1-0.120.26
threat rate (last 10)0.190.24
threat rate (last 3)0.170.18
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80