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Holstein Kiel 1–1 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Thomsen, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win56%1.72
Draw24%4.06
Regensburg win20%4.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel
26'🟨Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg
27'🟨Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel
28'⚽Marco Grüttner · Regensburg
36'🟨Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel
74'🟨Rafael Czichos · Holstein Kiel
74'🟨Marc Lais · Regensburg
76'🟨Patrick Herrmann · Holstein Kiel

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots21
3On target7
3Corners5
15Fouls19
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHolstein KielRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.39
box share (last 5)0.640.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days551.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHolstein-Stadion
217.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.002.04
elo1537.461491.64
elo momentum (last 5)-26.0915.08
eye test v1-0.120.20
eye trend v1-0.22-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)73.1049.30
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.37
keeper form v1—0.70
league points35.0029.00
league rank3.008.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4058.80
possession avg (last 5)56.0050.60
rest days7.007.77
scorer concentration0.270.24
season ppg1.751.45
skill v10.19-1.80
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.60
state index-0.410.07
sterile dominance v10.27-1.19
threat rate (last 10)0.240.33
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00