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Heidenheim 3–1 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win40%2.45
FC St. Pauli 1910 win33%2.95
Draw27%3.53

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Aziz Bouhaddouz · FC St. Pauli 1910
15'⚽Timo Beermann · Heidenheim
16'⚽Maximilian Thiel · Heidenheim
27'🟨Lasse Sobiech · FC St. Pauli 1910
48'⚽John Verhoek · Heidenheim
90'🟨Jeremy Dudziak · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
11Shots19
6On target4
3Corners4
10Fouls12
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.56
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.43
box share (last 5)0.570.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3808.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
64.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.13
elo1448.271444.36
elo momentum (last 5)16.15-2.91
eye test v1-0.380.44
eye trend v1-0.230.74
first sub minute (last 10)51.2061.10
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.10
keeper form v10.700.59
league points26.0027.00
league rank11.009.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0011.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.8072.60
possession avg (last 5)47.2048.60
rest days7.005.98
scorer concentration0.190.20
season ppg1.301.35
skill v1-1.20-0.51
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.007.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.40
state index0.13-0.45
sterile dominance v1-0.86-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.34
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80