⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Erzgebirge AUE 1–3 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christof Gunsch, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win36%2.69
Erzgebirge AUE win33%2.94
Draw31%3.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE
13'⚽Suleiman Abdullahi · Braunschweig
35'⚽Dominick Kumbela · Braunschweig
58'🟨John-Patrick Strauss · Erzgebirge AUE
67'🟨Patrick Schönfeld · Braunschweig
69'🟨Philipp Hofmann · Braunschweig
71'⚽Suleiman Abdullahi · Braunschweig
73'🟨Suleiman Abdullahi · Braunschweig
80'🟨Dominik Wydra · Erzgebirge AUE
90'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
17Shots18
6On target3
10Corners2
17Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzgebirge AUEBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.650.56
cards avg (last 5)1.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion
2.80
coach days241.003559.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.430.44
elo1417.381526.78
elo momentum (last 5)-10.01-23.14
eye test v1-0.35-0.06
eye trend v1-0.11-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)59.0057.80
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.720.69
league points23.0023.00
league rank17.0016.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0068.80
possession avg (last 5)47.8040.60
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.220.15
season ppg1.151.15
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.20
skill v10.11-1.45
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.40
squad age26.0526.99
state index-0.46-0.30
sterile dominance v10.00-1.28
threat rate (last 10)0.210.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20