← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 41% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.21 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 28% | 3.42 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Brandon Borrello · Kaiserslautern |
| 13' | 🟨 | Genki Haraguchi · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Christoph Moritz · Kaiserslautern |
| 51' | 🟨 | Marius Müller · Kaiserslautern |
| 61' | 🟨 | Marius Müller · Kaiserslautern |
| 61' | 🟥 | Marius Müller · Kaiserslautern |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Genki Haraguchi · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jan-Ingwer Callsen-Bracker · Kaiserslautern |
| 78' | ⚽ | Benito Raman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 89' | ⚽ | Lukas Schmitz · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 23 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Fritz-Walter-Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 128.00 | 697.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1396.37 | 1516.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.02 | -14.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| league points | 12.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.63 | 25.58 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |