← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 46% | 2.13 |
| Nurnberg win | 28% | 3.44 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |