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1. FC Union Berlin 0–1 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Union Berlin win46%2.13
Nurnberg win28%3.44
Draw26%3.71

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Ewerton · Nurnberg
71'🟨Toni Leistner · 1. FC Union Berlin
77'🟨Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg
83'🟨Toni Leistner · 1. FC Union Berlin
83'🟥Toni Leistner · 1. FC Union Berlin
89'🟥Philipp Hosiner · 1. FC Union Berlin
89'🟥Edgar Salli · Nurnberg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots12
3On target5
6Corners6
11Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
2Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC Union BerlinNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.730.64
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAn der Alten Försterei
2.60
coach days53.00331.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.471.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.08
dominance (last 5)0.510.55
elo1541.421551.86
elo momentum (last 5)-37.0826.51
eye test v10.030.92
eye trend v1-0.24-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)65.1057.40
form points (last 5)2.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.550.74
league points28.0037.00
league rank9.002.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet6.002.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0076.20
possession avg (last 5)52.6058.20
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.300.32
season ppg1.401.85
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.203.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4015.40
skill v10.120.52
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.405.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.40
squad age25.9925.52
state index-0.470.57
sterile dominance v10.140.18
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00