← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 45% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.43 |
| Regensburg win | 27% | 3.57 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Alfredo Morales · Ingolstadt |
| 28' | 🟨 | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 34' | 🟨 | Alexander Nandzik · Regensburg |
| 36' | 🟨 | Philipp Pentke · Regensburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morales · Ingolstadt |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | Hauke Wahl · Regensburg |
| 78' | ⚽ | Sebastian Stolze · Regensburg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jonas Nietfeld · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| coach days | 209.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1417.61 | 1575.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.96 | -14.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.40 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.89 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.52 | 27.52 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.44 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |