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Dresden 1–3 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Thu, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden win42%2.30
FC St. Pauli 1910 win30%3.25
Draw28%3.47

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Waldemar Sobota · FC St. Pauli 1910
19'🟨Jeremy Dudziak · FC St. Pauli 1910
23'🟨Erich Berko · Dresden
30'🟨Niklas Hauptmann · Dresden
53'🟨Manuel Konrad · Dresden
71'⚽Richard Neudecker · FC St. Pauli 1910
81'⚽Waldemar Sobota · FC St. Pauli 1910
88'⚽Lucas Röser · Dresden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
26Shots12
7On target7
14Corners2
16Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDresdenFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.450.48
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRudolf-Harbig Stadion
2.80
coach days939.0055.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.402.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.922.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.19
dominance (last 5)0.560.44
elo1462.641490.41
elo momentum (last 5)23.26-35.49
eye test v10.12-0.11
eye trend v1-0.24-0.00
first sub minute (last 10)68.1059.80
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.680.62
league points26.0025.00
league rank11.0012.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.0010.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0075.00
possession avg (last 5)52.4050.80
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.220.24
season ppg1.301.32
shot diff avg (last 5)2.80-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.60
skill v10.63-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
squad age24.4626.75
state index0.19-0.64
sterile dominance v10.190.07
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80