← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Thu, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 42% | 2.30 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 30% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.47 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Waldemar Sobota · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jeremy Dudziak · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 23' | 🟨 | Erich Berko · Dresden |
| 30' | 🟨 | Niklas Hauptmann · Dresden |
| 53' | 🟨 | Manuel Konrad · Dresden |
| 71' | ⚽ | Richard Neudecker · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 81' | ⚽ | Waldemar Sobota · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 88' | ⚽ | Lucas Röser · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 939.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1462.64 | 1490.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.26 | -35.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.10 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| league points | 26.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.46 | 26.75 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |