← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Tue, Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 47% | 2.05 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 27% | 3.65 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.74 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Tom Weilandt · Holstein Kiel |
| 9' | ⚽ | Tom Weilandt · Holstein Kiel |
| 19' | ⚽ | Dominick Drexler · Holstein Kiel |
| 22' | 🟨 | Marcel Hartel · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 32' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 71' | 🟨 | Steven Lewerenz · Holstein Kiel |
| 71' | 🟨 | Felix Kroos · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 84' | 🟥 | David Kinsombi · Holstein Kiel |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Sebastian Polter · 1. FC Union Berlin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 540.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1567.35 | 1538.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.24 | -52.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.40 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| league points | 36.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 26.57 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |