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Holstein Kiel 2–2 1. FC Union Berlin

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Tue, Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Arne Aarnink, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win47%2.05
1. FC Union Berlin win27%3.65
Draw26%3.74

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Tom Weilandt · Holstein Kiel
9'⚽Tom Weilandt · Holstein Kiel
19'⚽Dominick Drexler · Holstein Kiel
22'🟨Marcel Hartel · 1. FC Union Berlin
32'⚽Steven Skrzybski · 1. FC Union Berlin
71'🟨Steven Lewerenz · Holstein Kiel
71'🟨Felix Kroos · 1. FC Union Berlin
84'🟥David Kinsombi · Holstein Kiel
85'⚽ (pen)Sebastian Polter · 1. FC Union Berlin

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
8Shots13
5On target8
8Corners6
12Fouls18
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHolstein Kiel1. FC Union Berlin
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.36
box share (last 5)0.610.73
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days540.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHolstein-Stadion
50.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.312.31
elo1542.831497.78
elo momentum (last 5)-25.68-54.27
eye test v1-0.380.07
eye trend v1-0.38-0.49
first sub minute (last 10)71.4063.70
form points (last 5)4.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.06
keeper form v10.750.70
league points33.0026.00
league rank3.007.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win5.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6074.60
possession avg (last 5)56.2051.80
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.290.31
season ppg1.831.44
skill v10.12-0.08
sot against avg (last 5)5.806.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.104.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.60
state index-0.14-0.70
sterile dominance v10.27-0.07
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40