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Ingolstadt 0–0 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Tue, Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win59%1.64
Draw26%3.81
SV Sandhausen win15%6.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

62'🟨Philipp Förster · SV Sandhausen
75'🟨Eroll Zejnullahu · SV Sandhausen
87'🟨Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots6
3On target4
3Corners0
14Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.520.69
cards avg (last 5)2.602.40
coach days175.00571.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.208.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.411.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.690.44
elo1580.241481.46
elo momentum (last 5)-3.2626.80
eye test v10.28-0.26
eye trend v1-0.460.21
first sub minute (last 10)65.3048.80
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.680.67
league points29.0027.00
league rank4.007.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.0010.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2056.40
possession avg (last 5)57.2044.20
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.320.27
season ppg1.531.42
shot diff avg (last 5)10.20-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)18.2011.80
skill v10.25-2.49
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.60
squad age28.0825.61
state index0.560.13
sterile dominance v1-0.24-1.51
threat rate (last 10)0.310.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.27
threat rate (last 5)0.310.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60