← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Tue, Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 53% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 |
| Regensburg win | 23% | 4.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marc Lais · Regensburg |
| 10' | ⚽ | Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg |
| 28' | ⚽ | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Albion Vrenezi · Regensburg |
| 49' | ⚽ | Edgar Salli · Nurnberg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Sebastian Nachreiner · Regensburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alexander Nandzik · Regensburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 328.00 | 206.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1557.16 | 1412.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.93 | 59.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 62.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 26.21 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |