⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

FC St. Pauli 1910 2–1 Bochum

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Mon, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win35%2.78
FC St. Pauli 1910 win35%2.78
Draw30%3.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Vitaly Janelt · Bochum
19'🟨Yi-Young Park · FC St. Pauli 1910
33'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
34'⚽Lasse Sobiech · FC St. Pauli 1910
49'⚽Jan-Marc Schneider · FC St. Pauli 1910
75'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
78'🟨Johannes Flum · FC St. Pauli 1910
78'🟨Kevin Stöger · Bochum
89'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
89'🟥Anthony Losilla · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots15
7On target4
6Corners9
11Fouls11
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Bochum
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.36
box share (last 5)0.510.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days17.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
1113.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.26
elo1430.061439.48
elo momentum (last 5)-46.4924.04
eye test v1-0.57-0.23
eye trend v1-0.200.57
first sub minute (last 10)59.2060.10
form points (last 5)2.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.88
keeper form v10.580.69
league points21.0023.00
league rank15.0010.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2074.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8054.00
rest days8.299.31
scorer concentration0.270.27
season ppg1.241.35
skill v1-0.020.07
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.00
state index-1.37-0.02
sterile dominance v10.220.40
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00