← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 37% | 2.67 |
| Heidenheim win | 33% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Cebio Soukou · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 55' | 🟨 | Christian Tiffert · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 64' | 🟨 | Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mathias Wittek · Heidenheim |
| 73' | 🟨 | John Verhoek · Heidenheim |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim |
| 90' | ⚽ | John Verhoek · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 198.00 | 3759.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1424.29 | 1452.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.41 | 26.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 28.04 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |