← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Dec 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 43% | 2.26 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 29% | 3.36 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Skrzybski · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 60' | 🟨 | Felix Kroos · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 63' | 🟨 | Stephan Fürstner · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 73' | ⚽ | Robert Leipertz · Ingolstadt |
| 74' | 🟨 | Robert Leipertz · Ingolstadt |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tobias Levels · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | An der Alten Försterei |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 11.00 | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1550.10 | 1569.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.16 | -3.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 27.19 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |