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Ingolstadt 0–2 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Mon, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win63%1.54
Draw23%4.31
Braunschweig win14%7.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Steve Breitkreuz · Braunschweig
26'🟨Ken Reichel · Braunschweig
32'🟨Hendrick Zuck · Braunschweig
52'🟨Jasmin Fejzić · Braunschweig
54'🟨Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt
65'⚽Suleiman Abdullahi · Braunschweig
76'⚽Hendrick Zuck · Braunschweig
83'🟨Christian Träsch · Ingolstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
28Shots7
3On target3
7Corners2
12Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.530.57
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
coach days125.003504.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.592.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.14
dominance (last 5)0.650.47
elo1592.231537.54
elo momentum (last 5)41.72-10.07
eye test v11.050.33
eye trend v1-0.14-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)59.6053.40
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.730.72
league points25.0019.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8071.60
possession avg (last 5)53.8041.20
rest days9.009.00
scorer concentration0.350.17
season ppg1.561.19
shot diff avg (last 5)6.20-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.2012.20
skill v10.18-1.12
sot against avg (last 5)2.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.805.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.805.20
squad age27.2325.40
state index1.05-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.18-1.20
threat rate (last 10)0.320.32
threat rate (last 3)0.310.33
threat rate (last 5)0.290.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80