← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 45% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 26% | 3.72 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Lucas Röser · Dresden |
| 35' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 44' | ⚽ | Rico Benatelli · Dresden |
| 47' | ⚽ | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
| 62' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 67' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
| 75' | ⚽ | Erich Berko · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig Stadion |
| coach days | 886.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1460.52 | 1427.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.56 | -25.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.56 | 26.59 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |