← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 56% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.04 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 20% | 4.83 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 488.00 | 641.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1587.79 | 1509.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.16 | -24.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.50 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| league points | 34.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.26 | 26.78 |
| state index | 0.45 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |