← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Mon, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 48% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.74 |
| Dresden win | 26% | 3.81 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
| 5' | ⚽ | Lucas Röser · Dresden |
| 10' | ⚽ | Haris Duljević · Dresden |
| 31' | ⚽ | Benito Raman · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 62' | 🟨 | Oliver Fink · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 82' | 🟨 | Philip Heise · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Merkur Spielarena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 636.00 | 880.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1530.65 | 1439.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.94 | -26.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.25 | 24.87 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |