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Kaiserslautern 0–2 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 Β· Sun, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Florian Badstubner, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win36%2.69
Bielefeld win33%2.94
Draw31%3.20

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Andreas Voglsammer · Bielefeld
56'🟨Brandon Borrello · Kaiserslautern
81'🟨Daniel Halfar · Kaiserslautern
87'🟨Konstantin Kerschbaumer · Bielefeld
90'⚽Konstantin Kerschbaumer · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots13
2On target5
8Corners5
19Fouls15
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.560.62
cards avg (last 5)1.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueFritz-Walter-Stadion
coach days66.00513.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.203.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.408.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.853.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.17
dominance (last 5)0.480.56
elo1412.531453.35
elo momentum (last 5)-25.51-32.25
eye test v1-0.840.08
eye trend v10.270.32
first sub minute (last 10)50.3055.40
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.700.64
league points10.0019.00
league rank19.0010.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8075.00
possession avg (last 5)44.4054.40
rest days6.009.00
scorer concentration0.630.28
season ppg0.671.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.003.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.6016.00
skill v1-0.670.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.20
squad age25.0026.13
state index-0.53-0.64
sterile dominance v1-0.17-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.190.35
threat rate (last 5)0.200.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40