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1. FC Union Berlin 3–3 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Union Berlin win65%1.50
Draw21%4.65
Darmstadt win14%7.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Grischa Prömel · 1. FC Union Berlin
18'🟨Sandro Sirigu · Darmstadt
27'🟨Patrick Banggaard · Darmstadt
29'🟨Terrence Boyd · Darmstadt
38'⚽Grischa Prömel · 1. FC Union Berlin
45'🟨Dennis Daube · 1. FC Union Berlin
51'⚽Terrence Boyd · Darmstadt
58'⚽ (pen)Sebastian Polter · 1. FC Union Berlin
61'⚽Terrence Boyd · Darmstadt
66'⚽ (pen)Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt
72'🟨Hamit Altintop · Darmstadt
90'⚽ (og)Jan Rosenthal · 1. FC Union Berlin

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots9
6On target7
5Corners2
17Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC Union BerlinDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.600.62
cards avg (last 5)1.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAn der Alten Försterei
2.80
coach days511.001819.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.162.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.19
dominance (last 5)0.510.43
elo1578.491514.84
elo momentum (last 5)-3.63-31.87
eye test v10.74-1.00
eye trend v1-0.310.06
first sub minute (last 10)61.7049.70
form points (last 5)8.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.451.34
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.710.58
league points26.0020.00
league rank3.008.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.0012.00
matches since win1.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4070.60
possession avg (last 5)50.8044.40
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.14
season ppg1.731.33
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.409.60
skill v1-0.38-1.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.402.40
squad age26.2027.35
state index0.36-0.77
sterile dominance v1-0.43-0.51
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00