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Ingolstadt 1–0 Fortuna Dusseldorf

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win56%1.74
Draw25%3.92
Fortuna Dusseldorf win19%5.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Alfredo Morales · Ingolstadt
45'⚽Alfredo Morales · Ingolstadt
53'🟨Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt
55'🟨Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf
71'🟨Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt
84'🟨Christian Träsch · Ingolstadt
86'🟨Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf
87'🟨Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt
87'🟨Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots10
5On target3
5Corners7
21Fouls13
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtFortuna Dusseldorf
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.36
box share (last 5)0.570.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days110.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
628.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.631.94
elo1502.011501.61
elo momentum (last 5)55.5629.83
eye test v10.760.76
eye trend v10.27-0.53
first sub minute (last 10)58.7061.50
form points (last 5)13.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.95
keeper form v10.700.77
league points20.0030.00
league rank7.002.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8080.20
possession avg (last 5)51.2051.80
rest days12.7114.00
scorer concentration0.370.23
season ppg1.542.31
skill v1-0.100.51
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.305.10
sot for avg (last 3)7.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.005.80
state index0.750.39
sterile dominance v1-0.50-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.320.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.24
threat rate (last 5)0.300.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00