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Heidenheim 4–3 1. FC Union Berlin

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Union Berlin win41%2.37
Heidenheim win31%3.17
Draw28%3.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Damir Kreilach · 1. FC Union Berlin
44'⚽Arne Feick · Heidenheim
59'🟨Kristian Pedersen · 1. FC Union Berlin
61'⚽John Verhoek · Heidenheim
63'⚽ (pen)Sebastian Polter · 1. FC Union Berlin
66'⚽Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim
72'⚽Steven Skrzybski · 1. FC Union Berlin
74'⚽John Verhoek · Heidenheim
75'⚽Steven Skrzybski · 1. FC Union Berlin
78'🟨Maximilian Thiel · Heidenheim
90'🟨Ronny Philp · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots14
11On target9
8Corners3
15Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheim1. FC Union Berlin
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.380.60
cards avg (last 5)3.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
1.00
coach days3731.00505.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.131.52
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.05
dominance (last 5)0.390.49
elo1430.451591.32
elo momentum (last 5)-21.8917.00
eye test v1-0.740.16
eye trend v10.01-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)58.4065.00
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.000.35
keeper form v10.640.72
league points12.0026.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0073.80
possession avg (last 5)43.2048.80
rest days13.0014.00
scorer concentration0.210.32
season ppg0.861.86
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.6013.00
skill v1-1.15-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)6.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.205.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.00
squad age27.4726.05
state index-0.770.53
sterile dominance v1-0.74-0.31
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60