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Nurnberg 2–2 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win45%2.16
Nurnberg win29%3.33
Draw25%3.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel
54'⚽Hanno Behrens · Nurnberg
62'⚽Mikael Ishak · Nurnberg
70'⚽Aaron Seydel · Holstein Kiel
77'🟨Eduard Löwen · Nurnberg
88'⚽Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel
89'🟨Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots10
6On target4
4Corners6
12Fouls17
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNurnbergHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.44
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days262.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMax-Morlock-Stadion
474.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.232.13
elo1447.681568.52
elo momentum (last 5)-13.2234.63
eye test v10.131.71
eye trend v1-0.27-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)53.6068.90
form points (last 5)6.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.911.35
keeper form v10.650.77
league points22.0029.00
league rank4.002.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8074.80
possession avg (last 5)50.6054.40
rest days11.6912.98
scorer concentration0.310.35
season ppg1.692.23
skill v10.070.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.206.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.408.40
state index-0.441.00
sterile dominance v1-0.24-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.280.32
threat rate (last 3)0.270.30
threat rate (last 5)0.280.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.60