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Darmstadt 1–2 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Nov 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dietz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win36%2.73
Darmstadt win34%2.87
Draw30%3.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Richard Sukuta-Pasu · SV Sandhausen
42'🟨Kevin Großkreutz · Darmstadt
45'🟨Fabian Holland · Darmstadt
55'🟨Hamit Altintop · Darmstadt
60'🟨Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt
64'🟨Nejmeddin Daghfous · SV Sandhausen
65'🟨Maximilian Jansen · SV Sandhausen
71'⚽Richard Sukuta-Pasu · SV Sandhausen
84'⚽Patrick Banggaard · Darmstadt
87'🟨Patrick Banggaard · Darmstadt
90'🟨Marvin Mehlem · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
5Shots5
1On target3
5Corners3
20Fouls14
6Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.530.64
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion am Böllenfalltor
coach days1812.00504.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.272.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.370.53
elo1528.511454.66
elo momentum (last 5)-34.05-48.55
eye test v1-0.86-0.55
eye trend v1-0.050.21
first sub minute (last 10)51.4054.00
form points (last 5)2.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.620.64
league points20.0018.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet11.005.00
matches since win7.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)43.0055.00
rest days13.0013.90
scorer concentration0.140.36
season ppg1.431.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.601.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.6013.60
skill v1-0.96-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.20
squad age27.0327.23
state index-0.81-0.89
sterile dominance v1-0.580.07
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.270.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80